26 May 2010

A global poll of 74 economists by Reuters has found Spain are the favourites to win the World Cup, followed by Brazil. Of those taking part, 24 tipped Spain and 23 Brazil, says the news agency.

Reuters acknowledge that economists are not very good at predicting World Cup winners; a similar poll in 2006 tipped Argentina as winners, while only eight of 96 people polled last time picked the eventual winners, Italy.

Some 52 of the 68 economists in the current Reuters survey apparently expect at least one African team to reach the quarter-finals, which begs the question: what happened to six of the economists between the first question about winning and the question about African teams?

There’s no answer to that one in the full story, linked above, although it does say the economists think South Africa will become the first host nation not to progress to the second round.

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